Chapter ІІ. Modeling the risks of digital transformation in the system of strategic management of higher education institution ecosystems

Abstract

The article considers the urgent problem of digital transformation of higher education institution ecosystems, which is caused by the need to adapt educational institutions to the challenges of the digital age and the needs of social development. The importance of the research is due to the growing role of digital solutions in ensuring the sustainable functioning and competitiveness of universities. The aim of the research is to identify, classify, and model the main risks that accompany the digital transformation of university ecosystems in the context of strategic management. The paper substantiates the need to develop a comprehensive approach to analyzing the risks arising both in the internal and external environment of higher education institutions. The research applies structural-functional and systematic approaches to the analysis of the university's digital ecosystem. The classification of digital solutions implemented in HEI activity has been carried out, and the risks of digital transformation are systematized by the characteristics of their environment. The analytical comparison of the obtained results with the experience of leading foreign universities (Switzerland and the United States) has been carried out, which allowed us to substantiate the universality of the identified risks. Practical recommendations for risk management in the context of strategic digitalization have been developed. The research hypothesis is that unsystematic digital transformation can generate risks that can destabilize key functions of the university ecosystem. The novelty of the research is to combine the theoretical model of risk management with practical tools for assessing digital threats. The research used the methods of comparative analysis, content analysis of scientific sources, generalization, structural modeling, logical interpretation, and expert approach to the formulation of critical risks. The typology of digital transformation risks is built, seven main groups of risks are identified, and examples of their manifestation in the educational environment are systematized. It is established that the highest threat is posed by material and technical, personnel, information, organizational and management risks. The foreign experience in identifying digital risks is summarized and the potential consequences of ignoring them are assessed. The structured table of digital risks and practical recommendations for their minimization is proposed. The theoretical significance of the research is to develop the concept of HEI digital ecosystems as an object of strategic risk management. The practical significance lies in the possibility of applying the results to develop digital transformation strategies and improve management decisions in higher education. The originality of the research is manifested in a comprehensive approach to modeling the risks of digital transformation in university ecosystems. The main conclusions are aimed at integrating digital tools with the strategic management system to achieve sustainable educational development. Prospects for further research include expanding the empirical base, conducting in-depth case analyses, and studying the effectiveness of the implemented risk management mechanisms.