Structural imbalances in Ukraine’s financial market and their interrelationship with the effectiveness of state regulation in 2020–2024

Abstract

The relevance of the study lies in the fact that maintaining the financial stability of the banking sector does not always ensure the recovery of lending to the real economy. The article aims to identify and quantitatively assess structural imbalances in Ukraine’s financial market during 2020–2024 and to substantiate priority areas for improving state regulation, considering the relationships among banking-sector asset growth, capitalization, and lending intensity. The article frames this problem in the context of wartime financial system transformation, where regulatory policy must balance preserving systemic resilience with restoring banks’ credit function and supporting economic recovery. The methodological basis of the study includes structural-dynamic analysis, correlation-regression modeling, and the calculation of an aggregated financial stability indicator based on official data from the National Bank of Ukraine and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The results show that the growth of banking-sector assets and capital in 2020–2024 was accompanied by a substantial decline in the loan-todeposit ratio – from 67.6% in 2021 to 39.4% in 2024. Regression estimates indicate an inverse relationship between bank asset growth and credit transformation, suggesting that resources were primarily directed toward liquid, low-risk instruments rather than lending to the real economy. It is concluded that compliance with capitalization requirements supports macrofinancial stability but does not guarantee lending activity recovery. Improving state regulation effectiveness requires targeted credit incentives for banks, developing partial credit guarantee mechanisms, differentiating regulatory requirements by asset structure, expanding refinancing programs for productive lending, and strengthening control over the allocation of bank liquidity to the real economy