Macrofinancial asymmetry of EU member states as a factor in the differentiated effect of fiscal rules

Abstract

The subject of this research is the macrofinancial asymmetry of European Union Member States and its role in the differential impact of supranational fiscal rules. This paper views supranational fiscal regulation as an institutional mechanism for coordinating fiscal policy. The effectiveness of this mechanism is determined by the structural characteristics of public finances, the state of the external sector, and the country’s status within the Economic and Monetary Union. The research is based on the principle of multilevel economic governance, which states that fiscal rules operate within a framework of both national sovereignty and supranational control. The research aims to substantiate the institutional and macrofinancial factors that determine the varying intensity of the Stability and Growth Pact's and the Excessive Deficit Procedure's disciplinary impact on EU Member States. It also aims to identify the key channels through which this impact is realised, taking into account debt burden, external imbalances and market financing constraints. The research methodology is based on systemic, institutional and structural-functional approaches, supplemented by a comparative analysis of Member States' macrofinancial indicators. Analytical and synthetic methods were employed to develop a comprehensive conceptual framework combining the flow (current account) and stock (net international investment position) dimensions of external balance. The results obtained prove that fiscal differentiation is determined by a combination of debt dynamics, financing structure and external sector performance. Countries with a surplus external position and creditor status have greater fiscal space, while those with deficits and a negative net international investment position are more dependent on external financing conditions. The conclusions demonstrate that macrofinancial asymmetry is a key structural factor in determining the effectiveness of supranational fiscal regulation, and must be considered when enhancing the EU's medium-term budgetary framework. The research's practical value lies in its ability to inform the adaptation of fiscal strategies to conditions of external vulnerability, thereby ensuring long-term debt sustainability.